Admittedly, we’re just tracking the betting odds, but who knows, maybe we can popularise the word ‘trendmining’ There are just 1,160 Google hits for it right now. If that increases by the end of the month, it’ll be purely down to us. Anyway, here’s the thing – we’re keeping an eye on the Betfair odds (we’re using Betfair, because the odds are dictated by visitors to the site, so they’re more volatile than the regular bookmakers, and likely to move more in tune with events in the house). We then put those odds into a chart, and bung them here. Sorry, we mean we TrendMine them. It’ll catch on, you just see.
We started looking at the odds at the end of the launch show, and kept an eye on them at a few points throughout the following 24 hours. The last two points on each chart should prove interesting – the odds at the start of the 10pm highlights show, and the odds at the end of it. Just one racial, homophobic or sexist slur could see those odds lengthen like Stretch Armstrong on a charity bungee jump.
Alex started quite well, with a mid-table position of 6th favourite to win. For some reason – maybe The Sun ran with a front page splash of him punching a koala bear or saying something nice about Gordon Brown – his odds drifted to 21 (20/1 in old money), but by the time tonight’s show started he was back to 19. The end of the show saw him sitting on 20, making him currently 8th favourite to win, his odds now 25% below his launch ‘price’.
A hugely solid performer so far, second favourite at the start of the betting, and second favourite now. Indeed, what with his odds having dropped by a mere 1.69% since last night, his chart is as pedestrian and unspectacular as the brand of poundshop techno he peddles to the nation’s youth.
The former Another Level performer (they once did a single with Ghostface Killa of the Wu-Tang, y’know. A bit like Guitar Wolf teaming up with Susan Boyle, really) started out well, as third favourite to win. By the end of tonight’s show, his only real appearance in which was him fretting over Jordan and Alex’s reaction to him being there, in a more than slightly attention-seeking way (Alex seemed like he couldn’t give a flying frig), he’d drifted out to 11. A rise of 57.14%, in the sort of context where ‘rising’ is bad, in case you’ve not quite got to grips with what we’re doing here. Well, unless you’re sure they’re going to win, because it means you’ll win more money from betting on them,
The big outsider at the start of the show, rising as high as 55 when we checked the odds before bed last night. She’s pretty much stayed around the mid-40s since then, with the events of tonight’s show doing nothing to change her odds. She certainly seems nice enough, so that price may drop. Mind you, she probably won’t win the whole thing, so probably not. Can’t see anyone being in a hurry to vote her out soon though.
An interesting bit on tonight’s show, where Katia got all embarrassed when asked what she ‘did’, before mumbling something about having been in a relationship with someone in the public eye. If nothing else, she seems canny enough to know when to keep quiet, which sure makes a change from your typical 21-year-old Big Brother resident, who generally can’t think anything without telling the world what it is. Honestly, they’re usually like us on Twitter (“@StephenFry we was thinking about you on the toilet earlier LOL”, you know what we’re like on there). Not sure quite what’s changed between the end of last night’s show and tonight’s, though there may have been footage of her kicking in a swan on E4’s Big Brother’s Big Mouth that we didn’t see. A rise of 66.67% since last night, all in.
Our favourite to win, having drifted out to 17 about ten minutes after the end of last night’s launch show (at which point we plonked a tenner on her). That early high price seems to have been remedied steadily throughout the last 24 hours, with a steady decline, ending up on 9.6, a huge drop of 38.06% since last night.
Page Fwee Shtunna Nicola Tee certainly seems to fit into our “say everything she thinks” category, what with her initial encounter with Stephen Baldwin – not knowing who he is (fair enough), getting excited at him telling her he was in The Usual Suspects, saying she’d seen it, then asking him if he “was the one what done it?”. Her odds have been appropriately scatty since last night, but it’s interesting to see her odds drop during tonight’s highlights show. Maybe people are banking on the fact that Big Brother winners don’t need to be… let’s say ‘bookish’. Whatever happens, we’d advise against putting on a double for her to win both this and Celebrity Mastermind 2011.
NICOLA FACT! On Twitter, she is following Philip Schofield, Jimmy Carr, Andi Peters and Jonathan Ross.
The man who sounds like the name of a supermarket chain you might see if you were driving through eastern Europe (we’re going to keep refining that joke until someone, somewhere laughs at it) has dipped slightly, then risen. Currently 6th favourite to win, we suspect he’ll do quite well. We also suspect lots of people are expecting him to be a blinged up male diva, but he doesn’t really come across like that. A rise of 8% since last night.
Now, here’s an interesting chart. In the 23 and a half hours immediately following the launch show, Stephen “He was in Biodome, y’know” Baldwin hovered around the 30 mark. Between the start and end of tonight’s highlights show, his odds almost halved, suggesting a lot of people’s first impressions of him are getting a thorough kicking. His odds fell by 46.55%, leaving anyone who’d backed him at around 1pm today feeling rather smug, we’d imagine.
The former Sheffield United midfielder and Bacardi spokesperson has remained the favourite throughout the early betting, and his proclamation that he feels his biggest role was his furniture-chompingly bad turn in X-Men 3 did little to change that, with his odds only slipping slightly between the hours of 10pm and 11pm tonight. A drop of just 1.27% since last night.
And so, there you go. Eleven brand new charts from just an hour of television. It’s possibly a bit much to expect this level of Excel-based commitment each evening from us, there’s only a certain amount of self-parody we’re willing to display in such a public place.